World's Dams Unprepared for Climate Change Conditions

(sorry for x-postings, but this is a v. important story)

Climatewire | Energy & Sustainability
World's Dams Unprepared for Climate Change Conditions

Dams have been designed for river flows that will soon no longer
apply, according to new research
By Julia Pyper and ClimateWire | September 16, 2011
Scientific American
http://bit.ly/qX2HhQ

DAM PROBLEM: The world's dams are being built for water flow
conditions that may no longer apply thanks to climate change,
according to new research.

Over the past four years, John Matthews has been traveling the world
to better understand freshwater and climate change issues. He found
that poor planning is creating one of the biggest water-related threats.

"We need to think about managing water in a much more flexible way,"
said Matthews, who is director of fresh water and adaptation at
Conservation International. "Let's not just design for a single
future; let's think about multiple possible futures."

In a paper published this month in the journal PLoS Biology, Matthews
and his co-authors argue that investment and management decisions risk
exacerbating climate-initiated changes, which could lead to economic
catastrophes.

The conventional method of building dams is fundamentally flawed, said
Matthews. Looking at the available data, engineers decide on a flow
rate that they feel will optimize the infrastructure project. The
problem, says Matthews, is that historical data is not a very good
guide to the future of freshwater resources -- particularly now that
extreme water conditions have been exacerbated by a rapidly changing
climate.

According to the United Nations, humans will feel the effects of
climate change through the water supply. The hydrological cycle --
which includes surface and ground sources, glaciers, precipitation,
runoff and vaporization --- is very sensitive to small climatic
shifts. This is a concern not only because water is essential for
subsistence, but because it's also the key to economic development.
The way humans are managing water infrastructure and conservation, the
authors argue, is only intensifying these issues.

Old dams, new realities
"It's not that we need to give up designing; it's that we need a
better design and decisionmaking process," said Matthews. "We need to
think carefully about how conditions may be shifting, because there
are some things that we can say with high confidence are happening
because of climate change."

Over the past century, dams made in the West have become more
mismatched with their ambient climate. The Hoover Dam​, for instance,
was designed based on a 30-year period that had markedly higher
precipitation levels than today. As a result of a decade of drought,
the dam is now operating at only 30 percent of its capacity, said
Matthews, and new mechanisms have been added to cope with the lower
water levels.

When infrastructure plans are based on a set climate scenario, rather
than a flexible one, it can be very costly in both human and economic
terms, especially in the developing world, the paper argues.

Less-developed areas, particularly parts of East and South Asia, are
now entering a period of rapid hydro infrastructure development. Since
water managers are largely following the West's rigid planning model,
these countries are going to have difficulty adapting to changes in
water availability.

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development, 40 percent of all development investments are at risk due
to climate change, write authors in the PLoS paper. If a hydropower
project fails to fulfill expectations due to the effects of climate
change, governments could struggle to pay back loans from development
investors.

New dams and power shortfalls
Masses of people could also face prolonged brownouts. Matthews saw
this take place in Nepal, where low water levels rendered a brand-new
dam project ineffective and cut off the water supply farther downstream.

"[Developing countries] are likely to make themselves poorer and make
species and ecosystems decline at the same time, and I think that's a
huge crisis," said Matthews.

The solution is to build new water infrastructure in stages, say the
authors of the PLoS paper. Using that approach, managers can adjust
their strategy as climate patterns become clearer. Another step is to
integrate ecosystems into infrastructure development -- by "building
with nature" rather than on top of it, using a system that will be
more adaptive.

Finally, it's necessary to plan for multiple future climate scenarios
by coordinating engineers, economists and conservationists. A
collective approach will result in a more robust long-term strategy.

If water management practices stay the same and do not account for
future risks, then "we're building things based on a hydrological
lie," said Matthews.

Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from Environment & Energy
Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500
________________________________________________

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World's Dams Unprepared for Climate Change Conditions

Climatewire | Energy & Sustainability
World's Dams Unprepared for Climate Change Conditions

Dams have been designed for river flows that will soon no longer apply,
according to new research
By Julia Pyper and ClimateWire | September 16, 2011
Scientific American
http://bit.ly/qX2HhQ

DAM PROBLEM: The world's dams are being built for water flow conditions
that may no longer apply thanks to climate change, according to new
research.

Over the past four years, John Matthews has been traveling the world to
better understand freshwater and climate change issues. He found that
poor planning is creating one of the biggest water-related threats.

"We need to think about managing water in a much more flexible way,"
said Matthews, who is director of fresh water and adaptation at
Conservation International. "Let's not just design for a single future;
let's think about multiple possible futures."

In a paper published this month in the journal PLoS Biology, Matthews
and his co-authors argue that investment and management decisions risk
exacerbating climate-initiated changes, which could lead to economic
catastrophes.

The conventional method of building dams is fundamentally flawed, said
Matthews. Looking at the available data, engineers decide on a flow rate
that they feel will optimize the infrastructure project. The problem,
says Matthews, is that historical data is not a very good guide to the
future of freshwater resources -- particularly now that extreme water
conditions have been exacerbated by a rapidly changing climate.

According to the United Nations, humans will feel the effects of climate
change through the water supply. The hydrological cycle -- which
includes surface and ground sources, glaciers, precipitation, runoff and
vaporization --- is very sensitive to small climatic shifts. This is a
concern not only because water is essential for subsistence, but because
it's also the key to economic development. The way humans are managing
water infrastructure and conservation, the authors argue, is only
intensifying these issues.

Old dams, new realities
"It's not that we need to give up designing; it's that we need a better
design and decisionmaking process," said Matthews. "We need to think
carefully about how conditions may be shifting, because there are some
things that we can say with high confidence are happening because of
climate change."

Over the past century, dams made in the West have become more mismatched
with their ambient climate. The Hoover Dam​, for instance, was designed
based on a 30-year period that had markedly higher precipitation levels
than today. As a result of a decade of drought, the dam is now operating
at only 30 percent of its capacity, said Matthews, and new mechanisms
have been added to cope with the lower water levels.

When infrastructure plans are based on a set climate scenario, rather
than a flexible one, it can be very costly in both human and economic
terms, especially in the developing world, the paper argues.

Less-developed areas, particularly parts of East and South Asia, are now
entering a period of rapid hydro infrastructure development. Since water
managers are largely following the West's rigid planning model, these
countries are going to have difficulty adapting to changes in water
availability.

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,
40 percent of all development investments are at risk due to climate
change, write authors in the PLoS paper. If a hydropower project fails
to fulfill expectations due to the effects of climate change,
governments could struggle to pay back loans from development investors.

New dams and power shortfalls
Masses of people could also face prolonged brownouts. Matthews saw this
take place in Nepal, where low water levels rendered a brand-new dam
project ineffective and cut off the water supply farther downstream.

"[Developing countries] are likely to make themselves poorer and make
species and ecosystems decline at the same time, and I think that's a
huge crisis," said Matthews.

The solution is to build new water infrastructure in stages, say the
authors of the PLoS paper. Using that approach, managers can adjust
their strategy as climate patterns become clearer. Another step is to
integrate ecosystems into infrastructure development -- by "building
with nature" rather than on top of it, using a system that will be more
adaptive.

Finally, it's necessary to plan for multiple future climate scenarios by
coordinating engineers, economists and conservationists. A collective
approach will result in a more robust long-term strategy.

If water management practices stay the same and do not account for
future risks, then "we're building things based on a hydrological lie,"
said Matthews.

Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from Environment & Energy
Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500
________________________________________________

You received this message as a subscriber on the list: dams@list.internationalrivers.org

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Myitsone Controversy Sparks Discord in Naypyidaw

Myitsone Controversy Sparks Discord in Naypyidaw

By WAI MOE Monday, September 19, 2011

The Burmese government hosted a workshop on Saturday in Naypyidaw to
discuss the impact of hydropower projects on the Irrawaddy River, with
ministers, NGOs and Chinese investment interests represented. However,
far from being a carefully orchestrated seminar conducted by the
government to sanction the controversial project, the debate turned into
heated argument.

According to sources in the capital, no decision was reached on whether
to suspend the Myitsone hydropower project. They said several government
ministers differed on the pros and cons of the project, and that the
issue may be brought before parliament.

Notably, President Thein Sein and other high-ranking ministers were seen
to oppose the project.
"President U Thein Sein needs the support of more than 400 members of
parliament to change the proposal," said a senior journalist who spoke
on condition of anonymity. "There are some good signals as several
ministers openly aired their concerns about this project."

�The Chinese looked pretty uncomfortable at the workshop on Saturday,�
he added, referring to a delegation sent by the dam's main investor,
China Power Investment Corporation (CPI).

A diplomatic source in Rangoon said shortly after the new administration
came into office in March, rumors began spreading about internal
conflicts between hardliners and reformists.

At the workshop, Minister for Industry-1 and Industry-2 ex-vice admiral
Soe Thein, who is also Burma�s industrial development committee
chairman, openly called for a review of the terms of the contract, and
spoke about accountability.

He said the project has to be reviewed from a social, an economic and a
defensive point of view.

�The project has to be reviewed and members of parliament must be
informed,� he said. �CPI currently has control over the EIA
[Environmental Impact Assessment]�this is not the right way to proceed.

"We need to seek cooperation with experts, we need to debate and review
the issue for the national interest," he said.

Burma�s state-newspapers on Sunday did not report Soe Thein�s speech at
the workshop in detail.

Speaking at the workshop, Win Tun, the minister for environmental
conservation and forestry, said, "If the negative impacts of the project
outweigh the positive, the environmental problems could affect not only
us but also future generations.�

Burma's state media reported largely on Minister of Electric Power-1 Zaw
Min who stated that even though further assessments will be made, the
project will go ahead regardless.

Zaw Min also vowed he would continue working for the implementation of
energy projects as per his remit within the government.

On Sept.10, he also slammed the anti-Myitsone protests as "a disease."

Sources said an ongoing internal disagreement has evolved over Myitsone
and other issues between so-called hardliners led by First
Vice-president ex-Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo alongside Information and
Culture Minister ex Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan, Finance Minister ex Maj-Gen Hla
Tun, Upper House speaker ex Maj-Gen Khin Aung Myint, against the
"reformers�: Thein Sein, Lower House speaker ex Gen Shwe Mann,
Commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing and a few others.

Tin Aung Myint Oo is known to be well connected with Chinese investors
and Chinese tycoons in Burma, and he has long handled foreign
investments and trade in an official capacity.

On Friday in Naypyidaw, Tin Aung Myint Oo met Zhao Deyi, the president
of the China Railway Engineering Corporation (CREC) which has a massive
investment in the Yunnan to Kyaukpyu rail project.

"Vice president U Tin Aung Myint Oo may not dare to oppose the president
on the issue of this hydro dam,� said an official for an environmental
NGO in Rangoon. "I am sure that U Thein Sein will oppose the dam because
he is a serious environmentalist."

However, he downplayed that the internal disagreement will be
threatening to the regime in Naypyidaw by saying: "It is a good strategy
of the military not to act like politicians. They show splits in
opinion, but they cooperate behind our backs."

Security Tightened at Chinese Embassy
By SAI ZOM HSENG Monday, September 19, 2011
Security was beefed up in front of the Chinese embassy in Rangoon on
Monday morning after a rumor spread that it was to be the venue of a
protest calling for a halt to construction on the Myitsone Dam project
on the Irrawaddy River in Kachin State.

However, according to a Rangoon-based journalist, there were no signs of
protesters�only riot police and reporters.

"Trucks full of riot police arrived in front of the embassy in the
morning,� she said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "They took up
defensive stances.�

Sources in Rangoon said that a rumor had spread among both local people
and the foreign Burmese community that some local groups had organized a
demonstration in front of the Chinese embassy, calling for the Chinese
authorities to put a stop to the Myitsone megadam because China is the
main investor in the project, which is located in Kachin State.

Many people, including famous writers, scholars and politicians, are
currently demanding a stop to the project because of its social and
environmental impacts.

Several groups claim that the megadam project violates the 2008
constitution, pointing to Chapter 1, Article 45 which says "The Union
shall protect and conserve the natural environment.

On Sept 10., Burmese Union Minister and Minister of Electric Power-1 Zaw
Min said that the government will continue the construction on the
Myitsone Dam.

At a press briefing in Naypyidaw on Sept. 10, Zaw Min said the
government is building the dam in the national interest and intends to
complete its construction.

"There are a few bad things, such as there will be no place for
biodiversity and the people will be displaced by the reservoirs, etc,"
he said. "But we have to compare this with the national benefits which
we will get from the project. After we take away those bad things, the
project will definitely affect positively some 50-60 million people in
the country."

But at a workshop in Naypyidaw on Saturday titled "Impact of the
Hydropower Project on the Irrawaddy River," Zaw Min said, "The change of
environment and its impact will be studied while implementing the
project and operating plants as it is changing constantly. The project
will proceed in accordance with the decision of the Ministry of
Environmental Conservation and Forestry."

Construction on the dam commenced in 2009. If and when completed, the
dam will produce some 6,000 megawatts of electricity. Burma�s Ministry
of Electric Power-1 has contracted Asia World, a private Burmese company
owned by US-sanctioned Stephen Law, and the China Power Investment
Corporation (CPI) to construct the dam. The dam's reservoir is expected
to be completed by 2019, but thousands of people in Kachin State have
already been forced to relocate.

Meanwhile, The Economist, a London-based weekly news magazine, said in
June that China has a large stake in Burma, and is the country�s leading
foreign investor. Myitsone is one of many hydropower, mining and
infrastructure projects there, it reported.

"China, for its part, worries about the security of its investments and
people," The Economist reported. "In the past it has leaned on Myanmar�s
leaders to prevent fighting between the army and the ethnic
insurgencies. When conflict broke out in 2009 with the Kokang, an
ethnic-Han-Chinese minority, 37,000 people fled to China, provoking
sharp criticism of the Burmese junta."

According to data by The Economist, between one to two million Chinese
citizens are living in northern Burma working in the jade and gems trade.
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Huge geothermal potential in Canada

(Canada has done major harm to its rivers with big dams, and is busily
exploiting its dirty 'tar sands", yet it has massive geothermal
potential)

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Canada+vast+geothermal+potential/5398491/story.html

Canada has vast geothermal potential

Near surface in West and North; Hot rocks could produce more power
than country consumes, federal report says

By MARGARET MUNRO, Postmedia News September 14, 2011

A "massive" store of clean, renewable energy is sitting at Canadians'
feet, according to a federal report on geothermal energy.

Tapping into hot rocks that are tantalizingly close to the surface in
western and northern Canada could generate more electricity than the
entire country now consumes and generate few greenhouse gas emissions,
says the report by a team of 12 scientists led by Stephen Grasby of
the federal Geological Survey of Canada.

"As few as 100 projects could meet Canada's energy needs," according
to the team's findings, to be presented at a geothermal conference in
Toronto on Thursday.

The 322-page report suggests the clean, renewable source of energy
could be a game-changer.

"Canada's in-place geothermal power exceeds one million times Canada's
current electrical consumption," the report says.

The heat is closest to the surface in large swaths of British
Columbia, Alberta, the Yukon and Northwest Territories, but the report
says geothermal energy opportunities exist across Canada.

The report says that geothermal has distinct advantages over not only
fossil fuels and nuclear energy but also wind, solar and biofuels, as
the Earth's heat is available 24 hours a day, year-round.
Grasby said that geothermal is not without technological and
environmental risks.
But there is no question there is a vast amount of clean energy
underfoot, he said, adding that the country is well placed to start
drilling for it.
"Of anywhere in the world, Canada has the technology and knowledge to
move this forward," Grasby said, pointing to expertise devised for
energy exploration and mining.

Co-author Michael Moore, an expert on geothermal energy at the
University of Calgary, said Canada should be testing advanced
geothermal energy systems, as they promise an assured source of clean,
reliable energy.

Geothermal is free of the greenhouse gases generated by electricity
plants powered by coal and other fossil fuels, he said, and it
sidesteps the problems with nuclear power, which are making headlines
again this week after an explosion at a nuclear waste treatment site
in France.

"It is just silly not to take advantage of a heat source like this,"
Moore said.
Canada's fledgling, and in many ways frustrated, geothermal energy
industry welcomed the federal report.

Craig Dunn, chief executive officer of Borealis GeoPower in Calgary,
said "people often look at us like we're crazy" when trying to promote
Canada's "phenomenal" geothermal resource. "Well, now we can now point
to this report by a team of very reputable people," Dunn said.

Temperatures at the centre of the Earth hover around 5,500 degrees
Celsius, which is about as hot as the sun's surface.

The lava spewing out of volcanoes, and hot water from geysers and hot
springs, give just a glimpse of the heat available within five
kilometres of the surface.

One of the biggest advantages of geothermal is that it is constantly
available.
"You don't need the wind to blow or the sun to shine," said Alexander
Richter, director of the Canadian Geothermal Energy Association.

The biggest downside to geothermal energy is the high upfront costs.
Wells must be drilled kilometres deep to bring the heat to the surface
and plants must be built to turn the heat into electricity.

It takes five to seven years to get a geothermal energy system
operating, Richter said.

But once the plant is in place the energy, at least in theory, would
flow indefinitely, said Richter, whose association is looking to
Ottawa for more technical and regulatory support.

Geothermal energy has long been used in Iceland to directly heat homes
and buildings, and it is increasingly used in the U.S. and elsewhere
to generate electricity.

In conventional geothermal systems, hot water is drawn up and used to
drive generators to produce electricity.

Canada has yet to plug into geothermal electricity but there are
several small projects on the drawing boards in western and northern
Canada.

But those projects just scratch the surface, said Richter and his
colleagues.
They estimate there are at least 5,000 megawatts of geothermal
electricity available in B.C., Alberta and the Yukon.

� Copyright (c) The Montreal Gazette

Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/technology/Canada+vast+geothermal+potential/5398491/story.html#ixzz1YQqXjCwN
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China's Dam Builders to the World

China's Dam Builders to the World

September 15, 2011
Asian Sentinal

Mytsone Dam in Burma is just one of hundreds in a dam-building spree

Confirmation that construction will continue on the Mytsone dam on the
Irrawaddy River spotlights the vast dam-building capability of Chinese
engineers, who are involved in building at least 251 dams in 68
countries across the world, according to the NGO International Rivers.

In July, the Burma Rivers Network, which opposes the Mytsone dam,
released a 945-page environmental impact study opposing the dam that was
done by the China Power Investment Corp. itself, the Chinese state-owned
entity that is building the structure. Finished in late 2009, the
assessment has never been made public, the NGO said. It was conducted by
a team of 80 Burmese and Chinese scientists

Nonetheless, Burma's Minister of Electric Power-1, Zaw Min, told
reporters at a press briefing in the capital of Naypyidaw that the
Myitsone project will be finished within eight years "and I will answer
"No" to the question of the environmental groups who asked, "Will the
project be stopped? We hired a third party for the impact assessments
and we paid US $1.25 million for this. As we have done well with the
impact assessment, I will say that we will never stop the project before
finishing."

The dam has been under preparation since 2005. Located 1.5 kilometers
below where the Mali and N'Mai Rivers join to form the Irrawaddy in
Kachin state, it is expected to produce 3,600 to 6,000 megawatts of
power. It is the largest of seven dams the Chinese have proposed on the
Irrawaddy and is expected to inundate more than 750 sq km, according to
the International Rivers NGO, which seeks to protect rivers and defend
the rights of those who live on their banks.

Large dams lose favor
Large dams have increasingly lost favor across the globe everywhere but
in China, many of whose leaders are engineers. The biggest, the Three
Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in China, has privately been
acknowledged as an environmental and social disaster by top officials in
the Communist Party. In May, party officials warned of impending
disaster if preventive measures aren't taken to attempt to ameliorate
problems including ecological deterioration, erosion and landslides on
steep hills around the dam, algae blooms downstream, deteriorating
aquatic life and silting of the dam itself. Hundreds of thousands more
people may have to be moved away from the area around the dam, in
addition to the 1.3 million who have already been displaced by the dam,
officials said privately. However, the dam produces electricity
equivalent to that produced by 500 coal-fired generation plants.

The World Bank, traditionally the world's biggest source of funds for
dam construction, has pulled back on funding although it hasn't stopped
altogether, to the dismay of environmentalists. According to an analysis
by the bank's Internal Evaluation Group, it is now funding dams at about
half the level of the 1970s and 1980s.

"At first, large dams were simply regarded as engineering
structures-that is, in terms of their usefulness for generating electric
power and improving the management of water," the internal analysis
found. "In the 1960s, cost/benefit analysis became accepted as the
standard criterion for the justification of large dams, and the World
Bank pioneered the modeling of river basins and new methods of economic
analysis of multipurpose projects in developing countries.

However, social and environmental impacts emerged as fundamental
concerns. The bank has responded by adopting guidelines to integrate
social and environmental concerns into the analysis of proposed projects
and to seek to avoid or mitigate the adverse consequences of large dams,
according to the report.

Those guidelines apparently are not regarded as essential by Chinese
officials. The country, according to a report by David Biello, an
associate editor at Scientific American, "is engaged in a frenzy of
building that has left it with more dams - 26,000 at last count -than
any other nation in the world." In its continuing search for energy -
especially energy that doesn't produce greenhouse gases -- to power its
rapidly expanding economy, the government plans to almost double its
hydropower capacity to 380,000 MW by 2020

Across Southeast Asia, China is playing an integral role in funding and
building dams on the Mekong River, the Irrawaddy and many other rivers.
Southeast Asian dams include the Kamchay Dam in Cambodia and the Tasang
Dam, also in Burma. Major development projects have already been
completed on the Mekong, with more underway including two dams,
completed at Manwan in 1993 and Dachaoshan in 2003. At least four more
are in planning.

The Chinese government is building or planning to build as many as 12
large dams on the Jinsha River, whose headwaters are on the highlands of
the Tibetan Plateau and which passes through Yunan and Sichuan Provinces
before becoming the Yangtze. More than 300,000 people will be displaced,
numerous cultural sites will be inundated and river ecosystems
irretrievably altered, Biello writes.

Because China's dams are upstream from the countries of Southeast Asia,
according to International Rivers, when they affect the seasonal
fluctuations in water volume, the downstream countries feel the effect
of reduced flows and fish stocks most acutely. It is feared that in
addition to reducing the river volumes, the dams will prevent
nutrient-rich sediment from flowing, which would cause serious harm to
agriculture and fishing downstream.

"Among the areas in greatest danger is the Tonle Sap river-and-lake
system in Cambodia, which is the largest freshwater lake in South East
Asia. Because this area is home to more than 400 species of fish, as
well as many species of mammals and reptiles, it is a veritable hotspot
of biodiversity that was designated as a UNESCO biosphere in 1997," the
NGO argues.

The World Bank continues to argue that not all dams are bad dams. A
review of 50 projects by the bank's internal evaluation group said they
"have made major contributions to economic development. They have
created an installed power generation capacity of 39,000 MW and they
replace the equivalent of 51 million tons of fuel in electric energy
production annually. They control floods and provide water for urban
populations and for industrial development. They have extended irrigated
areas by about 1.8 million hectares and improved irrigation for another
1.8 million hectares, substantially increasing cropping intensity and
yields of major food crops."

Irrigation from the Tarvela and Mangla dams in Pakistan, for instance,
has made it possible to grow the equivalent of two wheat crops a year on
800,000 hectares of land, adding direct benefits of as much as US$260
million annually to the region.

That is hardly comfort to the people of Burma. The Myitsone dam is
expected to create a reservoir the size of New York City in what is now
pristine rainforest and displace 10,000 people, mostly from the Kachin
ethnic group, critics argue. The dam will also submerge historical
churches, temples, and cultural heritage sites that are central to
Kachin identity and history, they argue.

"There are a few bad things, such as there will be no place for the
biodiversity and the people will be displaced because of the reservoirs,
etc," said Zaw Min, the electric power minister. But we have to compare
this with the national benefits which we will get from the project.
After we reduce those bad things, the project will definitely affect
positively the 50-60 million people of the country."

With reporting from The Irrawaddy
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international dam projects.

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Solar power cheaper than coal

2011-09-14 07:17

Andreas Späth

Many critics of renewable energy technologies will tell you that they're a wonderful idea which they'd support whole-heartedly if they weren't so bloody expensive. It might come as somewhat of a surprise then that the day when electricity generated by harnessing the energy of the sun will cost less than electricity produced by burning coal isn't far off at all.

The cost of solar power has dropped exponentially for three decades and the trend continues unabated. According to the US Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the price of photovoltaic (PV) electricity (excluding installation) has plummeted from $22 per Watt in 1980 to just $3 today. In Germany, solar PV output has increased by 76% since 2010 while equipment prices have dropped by 50% since 2006. This year alone, the cost of conventional solar panels has fallen by over 20% internationally.

Michael Liebreich, the CEO of London-based research company Bloomberg New Energy Finance notes that "the most powerful driver in our industry is the relentless reduction of cost". Some commentators have suggested that solar power will reach price parity with coal by 2020, a mere nine years from now, but their estimates are turning out to be rather conservative:

• In May, General Electric's global research director, Mark M Little, suggested that his company's thin-film PV technology would deliver cheaper electricity than fossil fuels or nuclear plants within three to five years.

• In June, the world's largest thin-film solar panel manufacturer, Arizona-based First Solar, announced that they expect to be supplying power utilities in California at cheaper-than-coal prices in 2014.

• In August, a report by a think tank linked to the Chinese government projected that solar power would be as cheap as or cheaper than coal by 2015. China is set to double its solar electricity generating capacity to 2 Gigawatts by the end of this year, up from 900 Megawatts at the end of 2010.

• This month, a study published by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association suggested that parts of Europe could see cost parity between solar energy and the cheapest fossil fuels as early as 2013.

• For many poor, remote and rural areas in developing countries, locally produced solar power is already cheaper than electricity generated at large, centralised coal-fired plants.

Given all of this, you'd think the South African government would go all out to invest in solar energy in our sun-drenched country. Not so. We continue to build massive new coal power stations, ensuring that by the time solar power is cheaper than coal, we'll remain almost exclusively reliant on this non-renewable fossil fuel which will become more expensive as reserves decrease and carbon-emission taxes become mandatory internationally.

In addition to tumbling costs, solar energy comes with some very important extra benefits:

• significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions and climate change impacts;

• cleaner air and less acid rain;

• much reduced water consumption compared to coal or nuclear power plants;

• employment – a home-grown solar manufacturing, installation and service industry has the potential to create tens of thousands of sustainable new jobs; and

• less environmental degradation from mining and pollution.

By stark contrast, burning coal to produce electricity has very substantial negative environmental and human health impacts, all of which are routinely ignored – or "externalised" – in cost calculations. A recent study co-authored by Dr Paul Epstein, Director of the Harvard Medical School, estimates that "the life cycle effects of coal and the waste stream generated are costing the US public a third to over one-half of a trillion dollars annually".

In effect, we've all been subsidising the coal industry to the tune of billions of rands every year. As private individuals and as taxpayers we've been footing the bill for the damage it's doing to our health and to our environment, and we'll continue to do so for many years to come.

We need fundamental change. It's high time that our government saw the light and did everything possible to get us off our national coal addiction by truly supporting renewable energy sources like solar power. For the sake of our people, our planet and our budget.

- Andreas has a PhD in geochemistry and manages Lobby Books, the independent book shop at Idasa's Cape Town Democracy Centre. Follow him on Twitter: @Andreas_Spath

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Congo dams on African "climate change" list

http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/african-ministers-to-compile-list-of-priority-energy-projects-2011-09-15

ENERGY

African Ministers to compile list of priority energy projects 

 

 

By: Christy van der Merwe

15th September 2011

 

African Energy Ministers are meeting in Johannesburg this week to draw up a list of priority sustainable energy projects, which would be taken to a bankable phase to access funding after global climate change negotiations in Durban.

The conference, which started on Thursday, would produce the 'Johannesburg declaration' on Friday, which would contain a list of priority renewable energy and energy efficiency projects.

Although not ready to disclose the final list, it was stated that the hydropower Inga project in the Democratic Republic of Congo would likely be one of the projects.

There were said to be about five projects from the Southern African Development Community region, and two from the East Africa Community, as well as a number of others.

The projects were not new, and most had already been costed, but the Ministers realised that it was important to have bankable projects to present to the committees which would be managing the funds that were likely to be available after the seventeenth Conference of the Parties in Durban.

The leaders stated that they kept hearing that there was funding available, but that the projects were not sufficiently planned and often struggled to reach the bankable phase.

South African Energy Minister Dipuo Peters said that Africa needed to benefit and find a strategic advantage by using the funding mechanisms available through the climate change regime, and other new schemes in the pipeline.

United Nations Industrial Development Organisation director-general Kandeh Yumkella said that it was important for leaders to focus on practical projects, so they could look at practical actions and set clear goals and targets at global climate negotiating forums.

"We cannot solve climate change without an energy revolution," said Yumkella, noting that some 70% of the world's global emissions were said to result from the power sector. However, he added that Africa could not develop without ensuring that all people had access to energy – thus the need to focus on providing sustainable energy.

World Bank sustainable development director for the Africa region Jamal Saghir estimated that Africa required an additional 30 GW of power to ensure that all citizens had access to this basic service.

"In addressing climate resilience, we need to develop renewable energy," said Saghir, adding that Africa could leapfrog the rest of the world and adopt the latest, most efficient renewable energy technologies.

Peters noted that only 42% of Africa's population had access to electricity, with the rate for sub-Saharan Africa as low as 31%.