over the Nile are ignoring the fact that the giant dam will do more
than just regulate water flow--it will also change flood patterns, the
chemistry of the river, reduce silts, etc.--all of which are as
serious to the longterm health of the river as the changes in water
flow.)
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/585731
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Egypt�s enemy or a blessing in
disguise?
Steven Viney
Thu, 05/01/2012 - 10:59
Preliminary construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GRD)
began in April 2011 on the Blue Nile River near the Sudanese border.
Scheduled for completion in 2014, it is planned to be the biggest
hydropower dam in Africa, with more than twice the generating capacity
of the Aswan High Dam. But long before the completion date, the
project is already generating significant concern amongst the nine
other countries that share the Nile, especially Egypt.
Over the past century many treaties have been signed in an attempt to
assure each riparian country a right to Nile water, with Egypt
generally receiving the lion�s share. But sub-Saharan African
counties have long argued that the old treaties deny their modern
right to livelihood, and after a decade of political to-and-fro
between these countries and Egypt, the GRD is now underway.
Most recently, the Egyptian government protested that no quantitative
studies have been conducted with regard to the dam�s effects, a
complaint that resulted in a trilateral ministerial meeting being held
in November between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. During this meeting,
it was announced that an independent technical committee of experts
from each country would be formed in six months time to produce such a
study.
But at the same meeting, Alemayehu Tegenu, the Ethiopian minister of
water and energy, declared that regardless of the study�s outcome, the
construction of the dam will continue unabated due to high confidence
that the GRD will ultimately benefit all parties.
Adel Darwish, a British journalist and historian who co-wrote the 1994
book �Water Wars: Coming Conflicts in the Middle East,� told Egypt
Independent that Egypt never should have ruled out the option of
military intervention, because the stakes are so high for the
country�s livelihood.
While Egypt Waits
Various experts have recently shared with Egypt Independent their own
input on the potential pros and cons of the GRD.
Sherine al-Baradei, an AUC professor in the department of construction
and architectural engineering with a focus on hydraulics, points out a
number of major issues with the dam.
�Obviously, dams provide both good and bad effects,� she says. �But
with Egypt being so dependent on the Nile, serious agreements must be
made to ensure that the bad effects are minimized, and in advance.�
According to Baradei, hydropower dams create immense turbulence in the
water, where chemical reactions such as dissolved oxygen can destroy
fauna and flora. While the water will return to its normal state
before reaching Egypt, the damage to these populations will be
permanent. In addition, many nutrients and silt, which are essential
for agriculture, will be retained in the large dam.
�When the Aswan High Dam was built, farmers, fisheries and many others
were seriously affected for decades by the lowering of nutrients,
silt, flora and fauna in the water,� she says.
Baradei explains that these levels will certainly drop further with
the GRD, not to mention many other unforeseen problems that will
likely occur.
Perhaps the most significant concern is that Egypt may no longer
receive its appropriate share of water. But according to Baradei,
issues of water regulation can be solved through negotiations with
Ethiopia, whereas there is no solution for the loss of flora and fauna.
The Nile Basin Core Group (NBCG), a team of Nile specialists, has a
more positive analysis of the situation. In their view, the GRD is an
opportunity to create strong ties between Egypt and sub-Saharan
countries, and there may also be many positive effects of the dam.
�The right question is not what the effects of the GRD will be, but
how the Nile basin�s water can be used to integrate all riparian
countries in a stable and efficient way,� says Mohamed al-Mongy, an
environmental development specialist from the NBCG. �Instead of
looking North, East and West for our solutions, we need to begin
looking South, where the source of our livelihood lies.�
One of Mongy�s colleagues at NBCG, Haytham Awad, a hydrologist from
the University of Alexandria, has conducted research that indicates
the GRD may actually increase water flow to Egypt.
Awad�s research shows that during the flood season in late August and
early September, the majority of Egypt�s water arrives in Lake Nasser,
where it is stored for approximately ten months until peak agriculture
season in July the following year. During this period, approximately
twelve percent of the stored water evaporates.
However, with the water being stored in the GRD, where there will be
less evaporation and that will help conserve water.
Another finding is that the GRD is expected to produce power surpluses
which, assuming cooperation, could be exported to Egypt, leading to
strengthened ties between the two countries.
�Collaboration is key,� says Lama El Hatow, a member of the NBCG doing
her PhD research on water governance of the Nile basin. �When we
negotiate with the riparian states, it is vital that we understand all
the facts and science holistically.
�Good science should lead to the right political negotiations, as
opposed to jumping to haphazard conclusions based on partial
understandings that may lead to Egypt�s own detriment,� she concludes.
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