BP: Renewable energy will outpace oil growth in 2030
By Wendy Koch, USA TODAY
Turbines of Dingbian Fanshigou wind power plant stand Nov. 26 against
the sunset in Yulin, northwest China's Shaanxi Province. Energy giant
BP projects that renewable sources will grow at a quicker rate than
will oil by 2030.
Renewable power sources will outpace oil as global energy demand
surges nearly 40% in the next 20 years, according to an industry
forecast released Wednesday by energy giant BP.
Most of the expected increased in energy demand will come from
emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil, according
to "BP Energy Outlook 2030." Such non-OECD countries (Organization of
Economic Co-operation and Development), which will account for 93% of
the demand growth, will boost their share of demand from just over
half currently to two-thirds.
At the same time, energy efficiency and diversification will increase.
From 2010 to 2030, the report says, renewable energy sources (solar,
wind, geothermal and biofuels) will increase their contribution to
energy growth from 5% to 18%. In contrast, coal and oil are likely to
lose market share and natural gas is projected to be the fastest
growing fossil fuel.
The analysis is the first that BP, criticized for its key role in the
massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill last year, has published, although
the company says it has produced 60 years of historical data in its
own BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
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"One of our responsibilities is to share the information we have, to
inform the debate on energy and now on climate change," said BP's new
CEO Bob Dudley, who is trying to burnish the company's reputation. "We
are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon
emissions," he said in announcing the report, which estimates global
greenhouse gas emissions will peak just after 2020 but will still be
20% above 2005 levels. "For me personally," Dudley said, "it is a wake-
Here are report highlights:
--BP's 'base case' projections are that world primary energy
demand growth averages 1.7% per year from 2010 to 2030 although growth
decelerates slightly beyond 2020.... Toward the end of the period,
coal demand in China will no longer be rising and China is projected
to become the world's largest oil consumer.
--OPEC's share of global oil production is set to increase to
46%, a position not seen since 1977. At the same time, oil - and gas -
import dependency in the US is likely to fall to levels not seen since
the 1990s, because of improved fuel efficiency and the increased share
--Oil, excluding bio-fuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6%
per year; natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with more
than three times the projected growth rate of oil at 2.1% per year.
Coal will increase by 1.2% per year and by 2030 it is likely to
provide virtually as much energy as oil excluding biofuels.
--Wind, solar, bio-fuels and other renewables continue to grow
strongly, increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2%
now to more than 6% projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9% of
transport fuels and nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain
market share in total energy consumption.
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